By Chuck Foster, Chair
In this edition, we will review long-term trends in crime. The graphs provided below compare crime in Fairfax County with the United States as a whole. The data are presented as the number of reported crimes per 100,000 residents, which is a standard measure. The data source is the Uniform Crime Report (URC), which compiles data from police agencies throughout the country.The first set of graphs covers “Crimes Against Persons.” These include homicide, aggravated assault, rape, and robbery.
Observations of Crimes Against Persons
Homicide is a very infrequent offense in the US, and it is even rarer in Fairfax County, at roughly 50% of the national rate. At the national level, aggravated assault is roughly ten times the rate of homicide and shows a steady trend over the six-year period. At the County level, it is about 10% of the national rate. Rape in the County is around 40% of the national level. Robbery shows upward trends both nationally and in the County following the onset of the pandemic.
Although the charts show data only through 2023, the FBI released additional preliminary data for the first quarter of 2024. Compared with the same period in 2023, violent crime nationally declined by 15.2%, homicide declined by 26.4%, rape declined by 25.7%, robbery declined by 17.8%, and aggravated assault declined by 12.5%.
The next set of graphs covers “Property Crimes.” This is a broad category, with only Burglary, Motor Vehicle Theft, Larceny-Theft, and Shoplifting provided below
Observations of Property Crimes
Burglary at the national level shows a somewhat declining trend over recent years. The County data show a consistent trend at roughly 10% of the national level. Motor Vehicle Theft at the national level has risen dramatically and the gap to the County rate has widened. Larceny-Theft shows the County closely tracking the national rate. Shoplifting is the most surprising category. The rate in the County has far surpassed the rate at the national level. Last year, the Chief of Police for Fairfax County stated that “organized retail crime” is one of the most troublesome trends in the County. An organized group of shoplifters can work together to attack a retail store and quickly retreat, leaving major losses for the retailer.
The FBI’s preliminary data for the first quarter of 2024 show that property crimes nationwide declined 15.1% versus the same period in 2023.
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